(John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star via AP/)
As Spring Training camps across the country kick into high gear, we examine some of the major signings and trades that have been made in the last two weeks and the fantasy implications.
1. Yu Darvish Signs With the Cubs: Believe it or not, I don’t like this move in fantasy or reality. I am not sure Darvish can pitch up to his potential in a big market like Chicago. We saw signs of the pressure getting to him in Los Angeles last year.
Sure, the stuff is terrific and I still think Darvish is a top 20 pitcher but buyer beware from a fantasy standpoint. He will get plenty of run support and the strikeouts will be there but Wrigley, like Globe Life Park is a bandbox and Darvish is prone to giving up the long ball.
All things being equal, I would draft Darvish in the 5th or 6th round. Anything before that and you drafting more on reputation than potential production.
2. The Wizard of Hoz Lands in San Diego: Forget about the eight year, $144 million dollar deal Hosmer signed with the Padres. From a fantasy standpoint, what do you care? It’s not your money.
I know the analytical community doesn’t love Hosmer but in the world of fantasy, he is a good player and worthy of drafting early. Hosmer had a career year playing in a pitcher’s park in Kansas City. Contrary to popular belief, Hosmer’s numbers won’t change much playing in San Diego.
16 of Hosmer’s 25 home runs last season came at Kauffman Stadium so he can hit home runs in any park. The issue with Hosmer is his ground ball rate. He hit the ball on the ground 55.6 percent of the time last season. That’s not good. Hosmer can hit the ball to all parts of the field but he needs to elevate the ball more.
I have no problem drafting Hosmer as my everyday first baseman because barring injury, he will play in 155 to 160 games this season. You better draft some thumpers around him however because if you opt for a balanced line up with more speed, you will struggle to score points.
3. J.D Martinez. Welcome to Boston: The reaction to Martinez signing with the Red Sox has been mixed in Boston. Some love the move, others don’t. Regardless of where Bostonians stand on the Martinez signing, it is a terrific signing for fantasy owners.
Martinez had a monster season in 2017 hitting 45 home runs and driving in 104 runs between the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Aside from the obvious production, Martinez had a WAR of 4.1. That means he was a four win player. That’s impressive.
Martinez won’t put up the numbers he put up last season because he will face better pitching in the American League and the Green Monster will turn some of his home runs into wall ball doubles. However he can still be a 30 homer, 100 RBI player which translates to terrific fantasy production.
As you can see by Martinez’s spray chart, he has the ability to consistently go the other way which crucial when playing at Fenway Park.
courtesy of fangraphs
Martinez should add some much needed pop to the Red Sox line up and with some talented young hitters hitting in front of him, he will drive in a lot of runs.
Martinez’s overall ADP heading into 2018 is between 25-28.
4. Steven Souza Heads West: The rebuilding Tampa Bay Rays sent outfielder Steven Souza to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday as part of a three team deal.
Souza is expected to fill the void left by J.D Martinez signing with the Red Sox. While won’t hit for as much power as Martinez, he is a more complete player than Martinez. He will hit for power (30 home runs last season) steal some bases (16 in 2017) and play a better outfield.
Souza still has three years left on his deal and he is much more affordable for the spending conscious Diamondbacks. Arizona may have gotten better as a result of this deal.
As far as Souza’s fantasy value, I think it went. He can hit 30 home runs again in Arizona and he will run more.
Souza is currently ranked as the 154th best player in baseball right now on Fantasy Pros but that number could go up with this trade. He is worthy of being drafted as one of your everyday outfielder. The production will be there.